Cases plummet back to July levels

April 8, 2021

According to the ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures, there are currently 1,924 new symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on swab tests data from up to five days ago [*]. This compares to 4,152 daily cases a week ago a decrease of 54% from last week. That’s down 98% from a peak of 69,000 at the beginning of the year. In terms of prevalence, on average 1 in 1,394 people in the UK currently have symptomatic COVID. (Full table of regional results below).

Other key findings from ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey this week: 

  • The UK R value is 0.7
  • Regional R values are: England, 0.8, Wales, 0.5 Scotland, 0.8 (full regional breakdown included in table below). 
  • The R values reflect the significant drop in cases in the last week
  • The average rate of prevalence for symptomatic disease across the UK is 1 in 1,394 (full regional breakdown included in the table below)

The ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures are based on around one million weekly reporters and the proportion of newly symptomatic users who have positive swab tests. The latest survey figures were based on data from 6,200 recent swab tests done between 20 March to 3 April 2021.

The app is delivered in collaboration with King’s Health Partners, an Academic Health Sciences Centre based in South East London.

Tim Spector OBE, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Symptom Study app and Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London, comments on the latest data:
“According to the latest data, daily new cases of COVID have more than halved over a seven day period, with cases now below 2,000. These figures are among the lowest in Europe. Admissions and deaths are also continuing to decline, putting the UK in a similar place to July last year. It’s unlikely that cases will continue to fall at this pace, but with the vaccinations programme and the weather improving, it’s likely they will remain low. 
This week the government announced plans to make home-based lateral flow tests accessible as a tactic to catch more cases. According to our own data 5 in 1000 of these tests give a false positive result, so we are encouraging people to take a lateral flow test at least twice if positive and confirm it with a full NHS PCR test. However, people also need to know all the 20 symptoms, including sore throat, headache and fatigue, not just the classic three. So if you feel unwell with any of the symptoms of COVID, stay at home and get a test.”

Read about all the symptoms of COVID-19 here: https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/the-20-symptoms-of-covid-19-to-watch-out-for 


Incidence (daily new symptomatic cases)[*], R values and prevalence regional breakdown table 


Incidence / Daily new symptomatic cases age breakdown[**]    



Incidence / Daily new symptomatic cases regional breakdown  


A graph comparing all surveillance surveys (ONS, REACT-1 & CSS) 

The ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey results over time 

Map of UK prevalence figures



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