UK decline in cases get back on track

April 1, 2021

According to the ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures, there are currently 4,152 new symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on swab tests data from up to five days ago [*]. This compares to 4,785 daily cases a week ago a decrease of 13% from last week. That’s down 94% from a peak of 69,000 at the beginning of the year. In terms of prevalence, on average 1 in 987 people in the UK currently have symptomatic COVID. (Full table of regional results below).

Other key findings from ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey this week: 

  • The UK R value is 1.0
  • Regional R values are: England, 1.0, Wales, 0.9, Scotland, 1.0 (full regional breakdown included in table below). 
  • The R value has remained unchanged in England and has fallen in both Wales and Scotland
  • The average rate of prevalence for symptomatic disease across the UK is 1 in 987 (full regional breakdown included in the table below)
  • The place with the least COVID-19 is Cumbria, North West with 1 i n 7,767 compared to the most affected region which is Northamptonshire, East Midlands with 1 in 337 

The ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures are based on around one million weekly reporters and the proportion of newly symptomatic users who have positive swab tests. The latest survey figures were based on data from 6,832 recent swab tests done between 13 March to 27 March 2021.

The app is delivered in collaboration with King’s Health Partners, an Academic Health Sciences Centre based in South East London.

Tim Spector OBE, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Symptom Study app and Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London, comments on the latest data:
“As cases decline again, we’re seeing regional divides widen to a three-fold difference, a familiar trend we saw last summer when cases were similarly low. Last week we reported that cases in children had increased, but this has now reversed with cases falling, suggesting any impact of schools opening was very small. Even more positive news, is that cases in the over 60s have been consistently dropping for weeks. The data shows we’re in a good position as we begin to resume life outside of lockdown and the effect of the vaccine programme should keep numbers low.”

Incidence (daily new symptomatic cases)[*], R values and prevalence regional breakdown table 



Incidence / Daily new symptomatic cases age breakdown[**]   

Incidence / Daily new symptomatic cases regional breakdown  

A graph comparing all surveillance surveys (ONS, REACT-1 & CSS) 

The ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey results over time for the U

Map of UK prevalence figures



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